Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
